NBA Game Prediction Calculator

Analyze NBA matchups using team efficiency metrics and advanced statistical analysis

How to Use This Tool

Input Parameters Calculator

This calculator predicts game outcomes based on team efficiency metrics. You'll need:

  • Team names (e.g., LAL for Lakers, NOP for Pelicans)
  • Pace (average possessions per game between the two teams)
  • Offensive and Defensive Ratings for both teams
  • League average offensive rating (typically around 114.5)

Where to find data: All these metrics can be found on Basketball Reference under each team's page.

Game History Data Analyzer

This tool helps analyze recent game trends compared to bookmaker lines:

  • Enter the number of recent games to analyze
  • Input the bookmaker's over/under line
  • Provide the total points scored in each game (comma separated)

The analyzer will show you the probability of going over/under based on recent trends.

Pro Tip

For best results, use data from the last 10-20 games when teams are at full strength. Check injury reports as missing key players can significantly impact team ratings.

Teams Information

Use 3-letter abbreviations (e.g., LAL, GSW)

Use 3-letter abbreviations (e.g., BOS, PHI)

Find teams pace in "Basketball Reference website" and calculate the average (X+Y)/2

Efficiency Metrics

Where to find: All these metrics are available on Basketball Reference under each team's page. Look for "Offensive Rating" (ORtg) and "Defensive Rating" (DRtg).

Home Team

Points produced per 100 possessions

Points allowed per 100 possessions

Away Team

Typically around 114.5 (check current season)

Advanced Analysis (Optional)

These optional fields enhance the analysis by comparing against recent trends and bookmaker lines. Leave blank if you don't have this data, it can be calculated in "Game History Data Analyzer" tab.

Average total points from recent matchups

Variability in recent totals

Sportsbook's over/under line

Run analysis to see prediction results here.

Input Data

This tool analyzes recent game totals to determine probabilities against the bookmaker's line. Use data from the last 5-20 games for best results.

Typically 5-20 games for recent trends

Current sportsbook total line

Enter total points from recent games (home + away scores)

Analyze game data to see results here.

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